By Edwin Lungu Chipata, PF Senior Member
The recent developments in the Petauke constituency have set off alarms for the opposition Patriotic Front (PF). A senior member of the party acknowledges that these shifts show a significant challenge for them in the 2026 elections. According to this insider, the victory in Petauke shows that the UPND (United Party for National Development) is progressing steadily. They are heading for a massive win in the 2026 Presidential race.
As PF members, it’s crucial not to celebrate the Petauke loss, but instead to focus on introspection. PF once considered this region a stronghold. Losing ground there marks the end of an era for the party. The UPND, though victorious, is cautioned that choosing unpopular candidates in 2026 could be their undoing. The elections in Petauke have revealed a clear message: the tide is turning.
Petauke, which is traditionally a PF stronghold, holds crucial information about the party’s waning influence. Compared to other significant constituencies like Monze or Choma, Petauke should have strong PF backing. Nonetheless, as seen in the 2021 elections, PF’s grip on this constituency is slipping.
In 2021, Petauke saw 41,500 voters casting ballots across both presidential and parliamentary levels. Edgar Lungu was the incumbent president at the time. He lost to JJ Banda, an independent candidate, by a narrow margin of just 1,302 votes. Banda managed to secure 32,534 votes, while Lungu, despite his status, garnered only 31,323 votes. This shocking result clearly signals that JJ Banda was a popular choice among voters.
Furthermore, when analyzing the performance of the UPND and PF candidates in the same election, there’s a striking trend. UPND’s presidential candidate, Hakainde Hichilema (HH), secured 10,970 votes. This nearly mirrors the 10,098 votes obtained by Dora Siliya, a PF parliamentary candidate. Yet, the stark contrast in the number of votes for the parliamentary candidates shows that many voters preferred HH. This indicates growing support for UPND at the national level.
Looking ahead to the 2025 parliamentary election, the situation appears even graver for the PF. The UPND candidate has already garnered around 10,000 votes, while the PF-aligned candidate is only slightly ahead with 13,000 votes. This increase in votes for UPND suggests that the party is steadily gaining ground in Petauke. They could achieve a landslide win in the next elections.
The analysis shows the UPND would gain significantly at the presidential level if the results were held today. There are more than 15,000 votes for HH in Petauke alone. This momentum in the region suggests that UPND is poised for a dominant victory in the 2026 elections.
The question remains: Can PF recover, particularly in regions like Bemba land? Can they pose a real challenge to the UPND? This is a critical question for the party’s future. As the 2026 elections draw nearer, the path to victory for PF seems increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, the UPND is positioning itself for a strong, formidable presence.
The Petauke results serve as a stark reminder that the political landscape in Zambia is shifting. PF’s past victories are still fresh in the minds of many. Still, it is clear that for the opposition, the clock is ticking.
Keywords:
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